Western Michigan

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	177.0
Current RPI:	177
Expected SOS:	150
Current SOS:	150
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	215
Expected OOC SOS:	292

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	177.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	78-60	L	0%
11-16	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	N	74-81	L	0%
11-17	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	N	86-67	W	100%
11-19	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	N	66-79	L	0%
11-28	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	51-65	W	100%
12-2	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	73-78	L	0%
12-6	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	78-67	W	100%
12-9	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	79-87	W	100%
12-18	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	52-82	L	0%
12-22	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	63-66	W	100%
12-30	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	92-71	W	100%
1-2	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	87-75	W	100%
1-6	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	62-67	W	100%
1-9	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	84-61	L	0%
1-13	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	73-58	W	100%
1-16	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	73-71	L	0%
1-19	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	74-84	L	0%
1-23	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	81-85	L	0%
1-27	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	79-72	W	100%
1-30	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	57-71	W	100%
2-2	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	92-86	L	0%
2-6	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	68-64	W	100%
2-10	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	69-60	W	100%
2-13	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	83-81	L	0%
2-17	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	75-67	L	0%
2-20	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	83-81	W	100%
2-23	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	80-87	W	100%
2-27	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	58-74	L	0%
3-3	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	N	84-71	L	0%
3-5	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	78-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Michigan	MAC	26.29	26.29	48.63	48.63	-0.72	-0.72
Toledo	MAC	4.34	4.34	64.52	64.52	1.26	1.26
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.24	4.24	59.26	59.26	0.79	0.79
Akron	MAC	4.19	4.19	41.38	41.38	-0.72	-0.72
Buffalo	MAC	4.17	4.17	74.19	74.19	2.02	2.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.16	4.16	35.71	35.71	-1.19	-1.19
Central Michigan	MAC	4.14	4.14	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Ball St.	MAC	4.11	4.11	62.07	62.07	0.99	0.99
Miami OH	MAC	4.11	4.11	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
South Carolina	SEC	3.33	3.33	46.67	46.67	-0.22	-0.22
Kent St.	MAC	2.66	2.66	46.88	46.88	-0.17	-0.17
Bowling Green	MAC	2.53	2.53	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
Ohio	MAC	2.52	2.52	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
Oakland	Horz	2.04	2.04	56.25	56.25	0.26	0.26
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.98	1.98	33.33	33.33	-0.66	-0.66
Detroit	Horz	1.90	1.90	20.69	20.69	-1.11	-1.11
Milwaukee	Horz	1.88	1.88	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	1.75	1.75	3.45	3.45	-1.63	-1.63
Appalachian St.	SB	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Saint Louis	A10	1.69	1.69	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Idaho	BSky	1.67	1.67	67.86	67.86	0.60	0.60
Tulsa	Amer	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Wright St.	Horz	0.39	0.39	71.88	71.88	0.17	0.17
Green Bay	Horz	0.32	0.32	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.29	0.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.29	0.29	32.14	32.14	-0.10	-0.10
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.26	0.26	20.00	20.00	-0.16	-0.16
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Dayton	A10	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00